Will Apple Stock Split In 2024? July Edition

Apple (AAPL) is the second-largest company (by market cap) in the world and a member of the Magnificent Seven stocks that drove much of the S&P 500‘s gains last year. Thanks to an exciting set of launches planned for the fall, Apple investors are optimistic about the company’s short-term future. This optimism is prompting many to ask: Will Apple stock split in 2024?

Let’s try to answer that question by examining what’s happening with Apple stock now, what the company’s stock split history looks like, what analysts are saying and how a split may impact AAPL shareholders. I’ll wrap up with a prediction on the likelihood of an Apple split this year.

The Current State Of Apple Stock

Apple trades at about $214 per share. That price equates to more than 15% growth since January.

The year-to-date growth has been lumpy, however. AAPL’s price moved down between January and late-April. The decline reversed in early May when the company released its second-quarter results. Investors responded well to higher revenues in Services, Apple’s highest margin business. The company also announced a massive $110 billion stock buyback authorization and a dividend increase. In the 24 hours following the earnings report, Apple stock rose nearly 6%.

AAPL stock got another boost in June when the company introduced its AI feature set called Apple Intelligence. The stock price rose as high as $220 before leveling back to the mid-$210s.

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Apple’s Stock Split History

Apple has split its stock five times. The dates, ratios and approximate, unadjusted pre- and post-split stock prices are shown in the table below.

Leadership teams implement splits primarily to manage the company’s stock price. We can conclude from the information above that the ideal price for Apple has evolved over time. Initially, the management team was resetting the stock price to around $50. The last two splits have resulted in higher prices, in or near the low-$100s.

Market Sentiment And Analysts’ Predictions

According to MarketBeat, analysts rate Apple stock as a moderate buy. There are about two dozen buy ratings and 10 hold ratings, plus one strong buy and one sell. The average price target across analysts is $214.29, which is even with AAPL’s current price.

Analysts also expect the iPhone maker to close out fiscal year 2024 with sales growth of 8.1% and EPS of $6.59. Last year’s EPS was $6.13.

As for Apple’s split potential, analysts aren’t talking much about it. That’s understandable, given the stock has grown only modestly since its last split in 2020.

Possible Apple Stock Split Catalysts

Two potential stock split catalysts for Apple could arise later this year. The first is a strong iPhone upgrade cycle, driven by demand for smartphones that can power Apple Intelligence. Secondly, if Apple users rush out to upgrade, rising demand for AI-enabled apps could drive higher Services revenue.

Strong iPhone Upgrade Cycle

A beta version of Apple Intelligence will be included in the late-2024 release of iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS 15 Sequoia. But only some Apple devices have the computing power to run the AI features. Macs and iPads with M-series processors are in that group, along with the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max.

Apple smartphone users who want Apple Intelligence but don’t have the 15 Pro or 15 Pro Max will have to upgrade. The next available option is the iPhone 16, expected to launch this fall.

The iPhone 16 will incorporate other upgrades beyond the AI features, which is normal practice for Apple. New models typically include more computing power plus camera, display and design improvements.

Still, Apple Intelligence may be the primary demand driver for the iPhone 16. Should the AI features prove to be game-changing for iPhone users, the upgrade cycle will be strong—possibly driving AAPL stock high enough to justify a split. That type of growth would make Apple one of the best stocks of the year.

Services Gain Via AI-Enabled Apps

The iPhone 16 may also inspire a new generation of third-party apps that tap into the phone’s native AI functionality. Apps that gain traction as essential productivity tools will drive revenue for Apple. The company charges developers an annual membership fee of $99 plus up to 30% commission on in-app purchases and subscriptions.

Services revenue related to the Apple Intelligence rollout will lag device sales, so this catalyst has a longer timeline.

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Potential Stock Split Implications For AAPL Shareholders

Stock splits should not have material implications for AAPL shareholders beyond a change in share count. Mathematically, a split is a reallocation of the company’s market capitalization across a new number of shares. It’s like taking a pizza that is sliced into quarters and halving each slice to make eighths. The split adds more slices, but the size of the pizza remains the same.

The math of a stock split, however, does not account for investor perception, which can create consequences for shareholders. Let’s look at the short-term and long-term impacts AAPL shareholders might face if the company splits its stock.

Short-Term Considerations

An Apple stock split in the short-term would change the share count for existing shareholders according to the split ratio. A two-for-one split would double the number of shares available and within shareholder portfolios. A four-for-one split would quadruple the share count across the board.

Shareholders may also see their Apple positions rise in value when the split is announced and in the days prior to the split effective date. This is common, as investors often interpret splits as votes of confidence from the management team.

AAPL Stock Long-Term Outlook Considerations

Longer-term, stock splits can broaden the audience for a stock—which theoretically should improve demand and liquidity. Let’s look at the 2020 Tesla stock split to demonstrate this theory. Before the EV maker’s five-for-one exchange, the stock was trading for $2,200. At that price, the stock is only an option for investors with a per-trade budget of at least $2,200. Presumably, there are far more investors who could accommodate Tesla’s post-split price of $440.

Despite the logic of that theory, there is no definitive data showing that splits stimulate lasting demand or create value in the absence of other factors. Earnings performance is ultimately the most powerful driver of stock price appreciation. That means Apple shareholders should assume negligible long-term impacts from the company’s next split.

Will Apple Stock Split In 2024?

Apple probably won’t split its stock in 2024. The stock price today is about half what it was when the company announced its last split, a four-for-one exchange, in 2020.

The company could initiate a two-for-one split to get back to the 2020 post-split trading price, but that strategy might fall flat with investors. The recent Nvidia stock split was a 10-for-1 exchange following a period of extreme growth for the AI chip-designer. By comparison, a two-for-one Apple split after a more modest growth phase may feel like the leadership team is simply chasing headlines.

Bottom Line

Investors will have to wait for the sixth stock split in Apple’s history. A huge iPhone 16 launch this fall, combined with positive reception of Apple Intelligence could expedite the timeline—but the company has a way to go before a split seems justified.

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The brain trust at Forbes has run the numbers, conducted the research, and done the analysis to come up with some of the best places for you to make money in 2024. Download Forbes’ most popular report, 12 Stocks To Buy Now.