Presidents don’t control the stock market, but you can bet that the stock market reacts to major political events like changes in occupancy at the White House.
If Donald Trump succeeds in evicting President Biden from his current residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., publicly traded companies across the country and the world could see their top stock prices rise or fall on the news.
Like early Amazon investors who enjoyed otherworldly 200,000% returns between the late 1990s and today — or even those who got on board in May 2023 when the already gargantuan company began delivering a 57% one-year gain — you want to buy the stocks that can make you rich.
“Three themes that Donald Trump espouses are that domestic energy policy will favor fossil fuels, that he’ll exert influence to move interest rates lower and that corporate tax rates will fall,” said Anthony Termini, a seasoned investment advisor, portfolio manager providing specialized consulting to financial firms and FinTech companies and expert contributor for Annuity.org. “Those themes will affect investor portfolios if he is elected in November.”
Like Amazon one year ago, Chevron is already a corporate giant and a heavy hitter on the S&P 500 — but Amazon gained 56% in the last year, and energy bulls expect a Trump victory in November could do the same for Big Oil.
“Chevron is one of the largest American oil and gas producers,” Termini said. “Fewer restrictions on drilling will definitely benefit this big oil company.”
Market expert Gianmaria Feleppa, CEO of UCapital Fintech Group, agrees with Termini’s sentiment about Trump’s impact on fossil fuel stocks. However, he thinks ExxonMobil is the company that’s most likely to have an Amazon-like year — after all, it has nearly double the market cap of Chevron.
“Trump recently met with oil executives and asked for $1 billion in campaign contributions,” he said. “In return, he said he would roll back pollution regulations and would approve other policies they want while dismantling parts of President Biden’s green agenda.”
Trump is not a fan of the green movement, but one sustainable energy company could profit from the trade wars the former president vows to expand if re-elected.
“Solar panel manufacturer First Solar could benefit if Trump puts tariffs on Chinese-made solar panels, making them less competitive, which could help First Solar’s sales,” Feleppa said.
Drill, baby, drill is not the only Trump philosophy that could elevate certain stocks. The former president is a longtime and ardent supporter of lowering corporate tax rates. The crowning achievement of his only term in office, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, did exactly that — and if a second term brings more of the same, Warren Buffett’s investment firm stands to cash in as Amazon has in the last year.
“Berkshire Hathaway is one of the most profitable companies in America,” Termini said. “The investment conglomerate run by Warren Buffet is likely to be a major beneficiary of lower tax rates.”
Presidents don’t directly control interest rates, but as Termini said, Trump has indicated he will flex his executive power to steer them lower.
“Ares Capital is a specialty finance company that provides financing to middle-market companies — a segment that large commercial banks have shied away from in recent years,” Termini said. “Lower interest rates will mean more borrowing, which middle-market companies will likely pursue to accelerate growth.”
Selling at around $0.08 per share, Peninsula Energy trades over the counter as a penny stock, meaning it’s much closer to Amazon in its embryonic stages. The company’s Lance Project is one of America’s largest U.S. uranium projects, and its stock soared by 10% in 2019 when President Trump announced a plan to create a reserve of domestically mined uranium for weapons and energy stored in a “Federal Uranium Security Stockpile.”
Many analysts think a second Trump term could lead to more sunny days for Peninsula Energy for all the same reasons.
Trump’s Truth Social platform has endured bad press recently for stock volatility and financial losses. Similarly, Amazon lost 90% of its value at one point before bouncing back — and that’s without Jeff Bezos ever becoming president.
“Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that holds Truth Social, Trump’s social media platform, could get a boost if Trump uses the platform during his presidency,” Feleppa said. “It would draw a lot of views from the U.S. and abroad tracking his messages.”
Trump has vowed to increase defense spending as part of a second term in office, and U.S. Global Investors think the stock is poised to soar if Trump is re-elected — it already secured a $499 million contract for anti-tamper technology for the Department of Defense.
The company, which Forbes calls one of the best midcap stocks of 2024, has a roughly $3 billion market cap. For context, Amazon had a $2 billion market cap at the start of 1998 and $10 billion before that year was up.
There are two reasons that analysts think a second Trump presidency could give Lockheed Martin an Amazon-esque year.
First, it’s one of the biggest defense contractors in the world, and Trump has vowed to increase military spending. But as financial and stock market news provider Finbold points out, the company provides drones and other essential technology for another one of Trump’s policy priorities — border security.
The company makes weapons, vehicles, systems and accessories for law enforcement, and Trump has vowed to increase police and domestic security funding as part of his law-and-order platform.
